Effects of strengthening the Baltic Sea ECA regulations
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Published:2019-11-05
Issue:21
Volume:19
Page:13469-13487
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Jonson Jan Eiof, Gauss Michael, Jalkanen Jukka-PekkaORCID, Johansson Lasse
Abstract
Abstract. Emissions of most land-based air pollutants in western Europe
have decreased in the last decades. Over the same period emissions from
shipping have also decreased, but with large differences depending
on species and sea area. At sea, sulfur emissions in the SECAs
(Sulphur Emission Control Areas) have decreased following the implementation
of a 0.1 % limit on sulfur in marine fuels from 2015. In Europe the North
Sea and the Baltic Sea are designated as SECAs by the International
Maritime Organisation (IMO). Model calculations assuming present (2016) and future (2030) emissions have
been made with the regional-scale EMEP model covering Europe and the
sea areas surrounding Europe, including the North Atlantic east of 30∘ W. The main focus in this paper is on the effects of ship
emissions from the Baltic Sea.
To reduce the influence of meteorological variability, all model
calculations are presented as averages for 3 meteorological years
(2014, 2015, 2016). For the Baltic Sea, model calculations have also been made
with higher sulfur emissions representative of year 2014 emissions. From Baltic Sea shipping the largest effects are calculated for NO2
in air, accounting for more than 50 % of the NO2 concentrations in central parts of the
Baltic Sea. In coastal zones contributions to NO2 and also nitrogen
depositions can be of the order of 20 % in some regions.
Smaller effects, up to 5 %–10 %, are also seen for PM2.5 in
coastal zones close to the main shipping lanes.
Country-averaged contributions from ships are small for large
countries that extend far inland like Germany and Poland, and larger for
smaller countries like Denmark and the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia, and
Lithuania, where ship emissions are among the largest contributors to
concentrations and depositions of anthropogenic origin.
Following the implementations of stricter SECA regulations, sulfur emissions
from Baltic Sea shipping now have virtually no effects on
PM2.5 concentrations and sulfur depositions in the Baltic Sea region. Adding to the expected reductions in air pollutants and depositions
following the projected reductions in European emissions, we expect that
the contributions from Baltic Sea shipping to NO2 and
PM2.5 concentrations, and to depositions of nitrogen, will be
reduced by 40 %–50 % from 2016 to 2030 mainly as a result of the Baltic
Sea being defined as a Nitrogen Emission Control Area from 2021. In most
parts of the Baltic Sea region ozone levels are expected to decrease from
2016 to 2030. For the Baltic Sea shipping, titration, mainly in winter, and
production, mainly in summer, partially compensate. As a result the
effects of Baltic Sea shipping on ozone are similar in 2016 and 2030.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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