Exploiting the signal-to-noise ratio in multi-system predictions of boreal summer precipitation and temperature
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Published:2023-09-20
Issue:3
Volume:4
Page:823-831
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ISSN:2698-4016
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Container-title:Weather and Climate Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Weather Clim. Dynam.
Author:
Acosta Navarro Juan Camilo,Toreti Andrea
Abstract
Abstract. Droughts and heatwaves are among the most impactful climate extremes. Their
co-occurrence can have adverse consequences on natural and human systems.
Early information on their possible occurrence on seasonal timescales is
beneficial for many stakeholders. Seasonal climate forecasts have become
openly available to the community, but a wider use is currently hindered by
limited skill in certain regions and seasons. Here we show that a simple
forecast metric from a multi-system ensemble, the signal-to-noise ratio, can
help overcome some limitations. Forecasts of mean daily near-surface air
temperature and precipitation in boreal summers with a high signal-to-noise
ratio tend to coincide with observed larger deviations from the mean than
summers with a low signal-to-noise ratio. The signal-to-noise ratio of the
ensemble predictions may serve as a complementary measure of forecast
reliability that could benefit users of climate predictions.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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