Decadal changes in anthropogenic source contribution of PM_2.5 pollution and related health impacts in China, 1990–2015

Abstract

Abstract. Air quality in China has changed dramatically in response to rapid development of the economy and to policies. In this work, we investigate the changes in anthropogenic source contribution to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and related health impacts in China during 1990–2015 and elucidate the drivers behind the decadal transition. We estimate the contribution of five anthropogenic emitting sectors to ambient PM2.5 exposure and related premature mortality over China during 1990–2015 with 5-year intervals, by using an integrated model framework of a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). The national anthropogenic PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated with the GEMM for nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable diseases and lower respiratory infections rose from 1.26 million (95 % confidence interval (CI) [1.05, 1.46]) in 1990 to 2.18 million (95 % CI [1.84, 2.50]) in 2005; then, it decreased to 2.10 million (95 % CI [1.76, 2.42]) in 2015. In 1990, the residential sector was the leading source of the PM2.5-related premature mortality (559 000, 95 % CI [467 000, 645 900], 44 % of total) in China, followed by industry (29 %), power (13 %), agriculture (9 %), and transportation (5 %). In 2015, the industrial sector became the largest contributor of PM2.5-related premature mortality (734 000, 95 % CI [615 500, 844 900], 35 % of total), followed by the residential sector (25 %), agriculture (23 %), transportation (10 %), and power (6 %). The decadal changes in source contribution to PM2.5-related premature mortality in China represent a combined impact of socioeconomic development and clean-air policy. For example, active control measures have successfully reduced pollution from the power sector, while contributions from the industrial and transportation sectors have continuously increased due to more prominent growth in activity rates. A transition in fuel consumption has dominated the decrease in the contribution from residential sector. Meanwhile, the contribution from the agriculture sector has continuously increased due to persistent NH3 emissions and enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under an NH3-rich environment.