Decadal changes in anthropogenic source contribution of PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution and related health impacts in China, 1990–2015
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Published:2020-07-03
Issue:13
Volume:20
Page:7783-7799
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Liu Jun, Zheng Yixuan, Geng GuannanORCID, Hong Chaopeng, Li Meng, Li Xin, Liu FeiORCID, Tong DanORCID, Wu Ruili, Zheng BoORCID, He Kebin, Zhang Qiang
Abstract
Abstract. Air quality in China has changed dramatically in response to rapid development of the economy and to policies. In this work, we investigate
the changes in anthropogenic source contribution to ambient fine particulate
matter (PM2.5) air pollution and related health impacts in China during 1990–2015 and elucidate the drivers behind the decadal transition. We estimate the contribution of five anthropogenic emitting sectors to ambient
PM2.5 exposure and related premature mortality over China during
1990–2015 with 5-year intervals, by using an integrated model framework of a
bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and the Global
Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). The national anthropogenic
PM2.5-related premature mortality estimated with the GEMM for
nonaccidental deaths due to noncommunicable diseases and lower respiratory
infections rose from 1.26 million (95 % confidence interval (CI) [1.05, 1.46]) in 1990 to 2.18 million (95 % CI [1.84, 2.50]) in 2005; then,
it decreased to 2.10 million (95 % CI [1.76, 2.42]) in 2015. In 1990, the
residential sector was the leading source of the PM2.5-related
premature mortality (559 000, 95 % CI [467 000, 645 900], 44 % of total)
in China, followed by industry (29 %), power (13 %), agriculture (9 %),
and transportation (5 %). In 2015, the industrial sector became the
largest contributor of PM2.5-related premature mortality (734 000, 95 % CI [615 500, 844 900], 35 % of total), followed by the residential sector
(25 %), agriculture (23 %), transportation (10 %), and power (6 %).
The decadal changes in source contribution to PM2.5-related premature
mortality in China represent a combined impact of socioeconomic development
and clean-air policy. For example, active control measures have successfully
reduced pollution from the power sector, while contributions from the industrial and
transportation sectors have continuously increased due to more prominent growth in
activity rates. A transition in fuel consumption has dominated the decrease in the contribution from residential sector. Meanwhile, the contribution from the
agriculture sector has continuously increased due to persistent NH3
emissions and enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under an
NH3-rich environment.
Funder
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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