Analysis of a newly homogenised ozonesonde dataset from Lauder, New Zealand

Abstract

Abstract. This study presents an updated and homogenised ozone time series covering 34 years (1987–2020) of ozonesonde measurements at Lauder, New Zealand, and attributes vertically resolved ozone trends using a multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis and a chemistry–climate model (CCM). Homogenisation of the time series leads to a marked difference in ozone values before 1997, in which the ozone trends are predominantly negative from the surface to ∼ 30 km, ranging from ∼ −2 % per decade to −13 % per decade, maximising at around 12–13 km, in contrast to the uncorrected time series which shows no clear trends for this period. For the post-2000 period, ozone at Lauder shows negative trends in the stratosphere, maximising just below 20 km (∼ −5 % per decade) despite the fact that stratospheric chlorine and bromine from ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) have both been declining since 1997. However, the ozone trends change from negative for 1987–1999 to positive in the post-2000 period in the free troposphere. The post-2000 ozone trends calculated from the ozonesonde measurements compare well with those derived from the co-located low-vertical-resolution Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) ozone time series. The MLR analysis identifies that the increasing tropopause height, associated with CO2-driven dynamical changes, is the leading factor driving the continuous negative trend in lower-stratospheric ozone at Lauder over the whole observational period, whilst the ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) only contribute to the negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere over the pre-1999 period. Meanwhile, stratospheric temperature changes contribute significantly to the negative ozone trend above 20 km over the post-2000 period. Furthermore, the chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations that separate the effects of individual forcings show that the predominantly negative modelled trend in ozone for the 1987–1999 period is driven not only by ODSs but also by increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), with large but opposing impacts from methane (positive) and CO2 (negative), respectively. Over the 2000–2020 period, the model results show that the CO2 increase is the dominant driver for the negative trend in the lower stratosphere, in agreement with the MLR analysis. Although the model underestimates the observed negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere for both periods, it clearly shows that CO2-driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving the lower-stratospheric ozone trends in the vicinity of Lauder.