Characterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructure

Abstract

Abstract. Multivariate coastal flooding is characterized by multiple flooding pathways (i.e., high offshore water levels, streamflow, energetic waves, precipitation) acting concurrently. This study explores the joint risks caused by the co-occurrence of high marine water levels and precipitation in a highly urbanized semi-arid, tidally dominated region. A novel structural function developed from the multivariate analysis is proposed to consider the implications of flood control infrastructure in multivariate coastal flood risk assessments. Univariate statistics are analyzed for individual sites and events. Conditional and joint probabilities are developed using a range of copulas, sampling methods, and hazard scenarios. The Nelsen, BB1, BB5, and Roch–Alegre were selected based on a Cramér–von Mises test and generally produced robust results across a range of sampling methods. The impacts of sampling are considered using annual maximum, annual coinciding, wet-season monthly maximum, and wet-season monthly coinciding sampling. Although annual maximum sampling is commonly used for characterizing multivariate events, this work suggests annual maximum sampling may substantially underestimate marine water levels for extreme events. Water level and precipitation combinations from wet-season monthly coinciding sampling benefit from a dramatic increase in data pairs and provide a range of physically realistic pairs. Wet-season monthly coinciding sampling may provide a more accurate multivariate flooding risk characterization for long return periods in semi-arid regions. Univariate, conditional, and bivariate results emphasize the importance of proper event definition as this significantly influences the associated event risks.