Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
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Published:2023-02-02
Issue:2
Volume:23
Page:429-445
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Karali AnnaORCID, Varotsos Konstantinos V.ORCID, Giannakopoulos Christos, Nastos Panagiotis P.ORCID, Hatzaki Maria
Abstract
Abstract. Forest fires constitute a major environmental and socioeconomic hazard in the Mediterranean. Weather and climate are among the
main factors influencing forest fire potential. As fire danger is expected
to increase under changing climate, seasonal forecasting of meteorological
conditions conductive to fires is of paramount importance for implementing
effective fire prevention policies. The aim of the current study is to
provide high-resolution (∼9 km) probabilistic seasonal fire
danger forecasts, utilizing the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) for the Attica
region, one of the most fire-prone regions in Greece and the Mediterranean,
employing the fifth-generation ECMWF seasonal forecasting system (SEAS5).
Results indicate that, depending on the lead time of the forecast, both the FWI
and ISI (Initial Spread Index) present statistically significant high
discrimination scores and can be considered reliable in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions. When comparing the year-by-year fire danger
predictions with the historical fire occurrence recorded by the Hellenic
Fire Service database, both seasonal FWI and ISI forecasts are skilful in
identifying years with a high number of fire occurrences. Overall, fire danger and its
subcomponents can potentially be exploited by regional authorities in fire
prevention management regarding preparedness and resources allocation.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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