A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
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Published:2023-03-07
Issue:2
Volume:23
Page:891-908
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Bates Paul D.ORCID, Savage JamesORCID, Wing OliverORCID, Quinn Niall, Sampson Christopher, Neal JeffreyORCID, Smith Andrew
Abstract
Abstract. We present a transparent and validated
climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates
pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution
(∼ 20–25 m). Hazard layers for 10 different return periods
are produced over the whole UK for historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070
conditions using the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses
are computed for five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial
values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 and 3.3 ∘C). The analysis contains a
greater level of detail and nuance compared to previous work, and represents
our current best understanding of the UK's changing flood risk landscape.
Validation against historical national return period flood maps yielded
critical success index values of 0.65 and 0.76 for England and Wales,
respectively, and maximum water levels for the Carlisle 2005 flood were
replicated to a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.41 m without calibration. This level of skill is similar to local modelling with site-specific data. Expected annual damage in 2020 was GBP 730 million, which compares favourably to the observed
value of GBP 714 million reported by the Association of British Insurers. Previous UK flood loss estimates based on government data are
∼ 3× higher, and lie well outside our modelled loss
distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. We estimate
that UK 1 % annual probability flood losses were ∼ 6 %
greater for the average climate conditions of 2020 (∼ 1.1 ∘C of warming) compared to those of 1990 (∼ 0.6 ∘C of warming), and this increase can be kept to around
∼ 8 % if all countries' COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction
pledges and “net zero” commitments are implemented in full. Implementing
only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1 % annual probability flood losses by 23 % above average 1990 values, and potentially 37 % in a “worst case” scenario where carbon reduction targets are missed and climate sensitivity
is high.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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