Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts on vulnerable communities. Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are of particular concern, requiring resilient disaster risk management consisting of two key elements: proactivity and suitability. Drought risk knowledge can inform resilient risk management, but it is currently underexplored in Pacific SIDS, particularly in the highly vulnerable nation of Papua New Guinea (PNG). A tailored, meaning highly specific to the area under investigation, drought risk assessment methodology is key for expanding risk knowledge in vulnerable communities. A semi-dynamic and tailored drought risk assessment methodology to be utilised in PNG was developed in this research. Representative hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators were selected, and integrated geographic information system (GIS) processes were used to produce hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk indices and maps. The validity of the risk assessment was investigated with a retrospective risk assessment of drought in PNG (from 2014–2020) paired with a literature assessment (as a ground-truth source), and a sensitivity analysis. The preliminary drought risk assessment methodology demonstrated in this study was overall deemed valid and robust, with supplementary improvements proposed for consideration in future investigation. The developed methodology makes strides in addressing methodological knowledge gaps in drought risk assessment, for global assessments and those specific for PNG, and demonstrates the potential for risk assessment to inform resilient drought management practices in at-risk areas. Overall, the results of this study directly contribute to enhancing provincial drought risk knowledge in PNG.