Assessment of probability distributions and analysis of the minimum storage draft rate in the equatorial region

Abstract

Abstract. Rapid urbanization in the state of Selangor, Malaysia, has led to a change in the land use, physical properties of basins, vegetation cover and impermeable surface water. These changes have affected the pattern and processes of the hydrological cycle, resulting in the ability of the basin region to store water supply to decline. Reliability on water supply from river basins depends on their low-flow characteristics. The impacts of minimum storage on hydrological drought are yet to be incorporated and assessed. Thus, this study aims to understand the concept of low-flow drought characteristics and the predictive significance of river storage draft rates in managing sustainable water catchment. In this study, the long-term streamflow data of 40 years from seven stations in Selangor were used, and the streamflow trends were analyzed. Low-flow frequency analysis was derived using the Weibull plotting position and four specific frequency distributions. Maximum likelihood was used to parameterize, while Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests were used to evaluate their fit to the dataset. The mass curve was used to quantify the minimum storage draft rate required to maintain the 50 % mean annual flow for the 10-year recurrence interval of low flow. Next, low-flow river discharges were analyzed using the 7 d mean annual minimum, while the drought event was determined using the 90th percentile (Q90) as the threshold level. The inter-event time and moving average was employed to remove the dependent and minor droughts in determining the drought characteristics. The result of the study shows that the lognormal (2P) distribution was found to be the best fit for low-flow frequency analysis to derive the low-flow return period. This analysis reveals September to December to be a critical period in river water storage to sustain the water availability during low flow in a 10-year occurrence interval. These findings indicated that hydrological droughts have generally become more critical in the availability of rivers to sustain water demand during low flows. These results can help in emphasizing the natural flow of water to provide water supply for continuous use during low flow.