Assessment of the data assimilation framework for the Rapid Refresh Forecast System v0.1 and impacts on forecasts of a convective storm case study

Abstract

Abstract. The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is currently under development and aims to replace the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational suite of regional- and convective-scale modeling systems in the next upgrade. In order to achieve skillful forecasts comparable to the current operational suite, each component of the RRFS needs to be configured through exhaustive testing and evaluation. The current data assimilation component uses the hybrid three-dimensional ensemble–variational data assimilation (3DEnVar) algorithm in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In this study, various data assimilation algorithms and configurations in GSI are assessed for their impacts on RRFS analyses and forecasts of a squall line over Oklahoma on 4 May 2020. A domain of 3 km horizontal grid spacing is configured, and hourly update cycles are performed using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the 3 km grid High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Results show that a baseline RRFS run is able to represent the observed convection, although with stronger cells and large location errors. With data assimilation, these errors are reduced, especially in the 4 and 6 h forecasts using 75 % of the ensemble background error covariance (BEC) and 25 % of the static BEC with the supersaturation removal function activated in GSI. Decreasing the vertical ensemble localization radius from 3 layers to 1 layer in the first 10 layers of the hybrid analysis results in overall less skillful forecasts. Convection is greatly improved when using planetary boundary layer pseudo-observations, especially at 4 h forecast, and the bias of the 2 h forecast of temperature is reduced below 800 hPa. Lighter hourly accumulated precipitation is predicted better when using 100 % ensemble BEC in the first 4 h forecast, but heavier hourly accumulated precipitation is better predicted with 75 % ensemble BEC. Our results provide insight into the current capabilities of the RRFS data assimilation system and identify configurations that should be considered as candidates for the first version of RRFS.