Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
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Published:2024-01-26
Issue:1
Volume:15
Page:41-74
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ISSN:2190-4987
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Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Wunderling NicoORCID, von der Heydt Anna S.ORCID, Aksenov YevgenyORCID, Barker StephenORCID, Bastiaansen RobbinORCID, Brovkin VictorORCID, Brunetti MauraORCID, Couplet Victor, Kleinen ThomasORCID, Lear Caroline H.ORCID, Lohmann JohannesORCID, Roman-Cuesta Rosa Maria, Sinet SachaORCID, Swingedouw DidierORCID, Winkelmann RicardaORCID, Anand PallaviORCID, Barichivich JonathanORCID, Bathiany SebastianORCID, Baudena MaraORCID, Bruun John T.ORCID, Chiessi Cristiano M.ORCID, Coxall Helen K.ORCID, Docquier DavidORCID, Donges Jonathan F.ORCID, Falkena Swinda K. J.ORCID, Klose Ann KristinORCID, Obura David, Rocha JuanORCID, Rynders StefanieORCID, Steinert Norman JuliusORCID, Willeit MatteoORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.
Funder
H2020 European Research Council Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung Natural Environment Research Council Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung Research Councils UK Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Fondation BNP Paribas United States Agency for International Development Netherlands Earth System Science Centre HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico UK Research and Innovation Belgian Federal Science Policy Office
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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