A deep-learning-technique-based data-driven model for accurate and rapid flood predictions in temporal and spatial dimensions

Abstract

Abstract. An accurate and rapid urban flood prediction model is essential to support decision-making for flood management. This study developed a deep-learning-technique-based data-driven model for flood predictions in both temporal and spatial dimensions, based on an integration of long short-term memory (LSTM) network, Bayesian optimization, and transfer learning techniques. A case study in northern China was applied to test the model performance, and the results clearly showed that the model can accurately predict the maximum water depths and flood time series for various hyetograph inputs, with substantial improvements in the computation time. The model predicted flood maps 19 585 times faster than the physically based hydrodynamic model and achieved a mean relative error of 9.5 %. For retrieving the spatial patterns of water depths, the degree of similarity of the flood maps was very high. In a best case scenario, the difference between the ground truth and model prediction was only 0.76 %, and the spatial distributions of inundated paths and areas were almost identical. With the adoption of transfer learning, the proposed model was well applied to a new case study and showed robust compatibility and generalization ability. Our model was further compared with two baseline prediction algorithms (artificial neural network and convolutional neural network) to validate the model superiority. The proposed model can potentially replace and/or complement the conventional hydrodynamic model for urban flood assessment and management, particularly in applications of real-time control, optimization, and emergency design and planning.