Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate

Abstract

Abstract. Flooding is a major natural hazard in many parts of the world, and its frequency and magnitude are projected to increase with global warming. With increased concern over ongoing climate change, more detailed and precise information about climate-change risks is required for formulating local-scale countermeasures. However, the impacts of biases in climate-model outputs on river-flood simulation have not been fully evaluated, and thus evaluation of future flood risks using hazard maps (high-resolution spatial-distribution maps of inundation depths) has not been achieved. Therefore, this study examined methods for constructing future-flood-hazard maps and discussed their validity. Specifically, we compared the runoff-correction method that corrects for bias in general-circulation-model (GCM) runoff using the monthly climatology of reanalysis runoff with the lookup method, which uses the GCM simulation results without bias correction to calculate changes in the return period and depends on the reanalysis simulation to determine absolute flood depths. The results imply that the runoff-correction method may produce significantly different hazard maps compared to those based on reanalysis of runoff data. We found that, in some cases, bias correction did not perform as expected for extreme values associated with the hazard map, even under the historical climate, as the bias of extreme values differed from that of the mean value. We found that the change direction of a future hazard (increase or decrease) obtained using the runoff-correction method relative to the reference reanalysis-based hazard map may be inconsistent with changes projected by Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain Model (CaMa-Flood) simulations based on GCM runoff input in some cases. On the other hand, the lookup method produced future-hazard maps that are consistent with flood-hazard changes projected by CaMa-Flood simulations obtained using GCM runoff input, indicating the possibility of obtaining a reasonable inundated-area distribution. These results suggest that the lookup method is more suitable for future-flood hazard-map construction than the runoff-correction method. The lookup method also has the advantage of facilitating research on efficient construction of future-climate hazard maps, as it allows for improvement of the reanalysis hazard map through upgrading of the model and separate estimation of changes due to climate change. We discuss future changes at the global scale in inundation areas and the affected population within the inundation area. Using the lookup method, the total population living in modeled inundation areas with flood magnitudes exceeding the 100-year return period under a future climate would be approximately 1.86 billion. In the assessment of future-climate risks, we found that an affected population of approximately 0.2 billion may be missed if the historical-hazard map is used as an alternative to constructing future-hazard maps, and only frequency changes are considered. These results suggest that, in global flood-risk studies, future-hazard maps are important for proper estimation of climate-change risks rather than assessing solely changes in the frequency of occurrence of a given flood intensity.