Probabilistic estimation of the Dynamic Wake Meandering model parameters using SpinnerLidar-derived wake characteristics

Abstract

Abstract. We study the calibration of the Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) model using high-spatial- and high-temporal-resolution SpinnerLidar measurements of the wake field collected at the Scaled Wind Farm Technology (SWiFT) facility located in Lubbock, Texas, USA. We derive two-dimensional wake flow characteristics including wake deficit, wake turbulence, and wake meandering from the lidar observations under different atmospheric stability conditions, inflow wind speeds, and downstream distances up to five rotor diameters. We then apply Bayesian inference to obtain a probabilistic calibration of the DWM model, where the resulting joint distribution of parameters allows for both model implementation and uncertainty assessment. We validate the resulting fully resolved wake field predictions against the lidar measurements and discuss the most critical sources of uncertainty. The results indicate that the DWM model can accurately predict the mean wind velocity and turbulence fields in the far-wake region beyond four rotor diameters as long as properly calibrated parameters are used, and wake meandering time series are accurately replicated. We show that the current DWM model parameters in the IEC standard lead to conservative wake deficit predictions for ambient turbulence intensities above 12 % at the SWiFT site. Finally, we provide practical recommendations for reliable calibration procedures.