A simple predictive model for the eddy propagation trajectory in the northern South China Sea

Abstract

Abstract. A novel predictive model was built for eddy propagation trajectory using the multiple linear regression method. This simple model relates various oceanic parameters to eddy propagation position changes in the northern South China Sea (NSCS). These oceanic parameters mainly represent the effects of β and mean flow advection on the eddy propagation. The performance of the proposed model has been examined in the NSCS based on five years of satellite altimeter data and demonstrates its significant forecasting skills over a 4-week forecast window compared to the traditional persistence method. It was also found that the model forecasting accuracy is sensitive to eddy polarity and the forecast season.