Downstream prediction using a nonlinear prediction method

Abstract

Abstract. The estimation of river flow is significantly related to the impact of urban hydrology, as this could provide information to solve important problems, such as flooding downstream. The nonlinear prediction method has been employed for analysis of four years of daily river flow data for the Langat River at Kajang, Malaysia, which is located in a downstream area. The nonlinear prediction method involves two steps; namely, the reconstruction of phase space and prediction. The reconstruction of phase space involves reconstruction from a single variable to the m-dimensional phase space in which the dimension m is based on optimal values from two methods: the correlation dimension method (Model I) and false nearest neighbour(s) (Model II). The selection of an appropriate method for selecting a combination of preliminary parameters, such as m, is important to provide an accurate prediction. From our investigation, we gather that via manipulation of the appropriate parameters for the reconstruction of the phase space, Model II provides better prediction results. In particular, we have used Model II together with the local linear prediction method to achieve the prediction results for the downstream area with a high correlation coefficient. In summary, the results show that Langat River in Kajang is chaotic, and, therefore, predictable using the nonlinear prediction method. Thus, the analysis and prediction of river flow in this area can provide river flow information to the proper authorities for the construction of flood control, particularly for the downstream area.