An attempt at estimating Paris area CO₂ emissions from atmospheric concentration measurements

Abstract

Abstract. Atmospheric concentration measurements are used to adjust the daily to monthly budget of CO2 emissions from the AirParif inventory of the Paris agglomeration. We use 5 atmospheric monitoring sites including one at the top of the Eiffel tower. The atmospheric inversion is based on a Bayesian approach, and relies on an atmospheric transport model with a spatial resolution of 2 km with boundary conditions from a global coarse grid transport model. The inversion tool adjusts the CO2 fluxes (anthropogenic and biogenic) with a temporal resolution of 6 h, assuming temporal correlation of emissions uncertainties within the daily cycle and from day to day, while keeping the a priori spatial distribution from the emission inventory. The inversion significantly improves the agreement between measured and modelled concentrations. However, the amplitude of the atmospheric transport errors is often large compared to the CO2 gradients between the sites that are used to estimate the fluxes, in particular for the Eiffel tower station. In addition, we sometime observe large model-measurement differences upwind from the Paris agglomeration, which confirms the large and poorly constrained contribution from distant sources and sinks included in the prescribed CO2 boundary conditions These results suggest that (i) the Eiffel measurements at 300 m above ground cannot be used with the current system and (ii) the inversion shall rely on the measured upwind-downwind gradients rather than the raw mole fraction measurements. With such setup, realistic emissions are retrieved for two 30 day periods. Similar inversions over longer periods are necessary for a proper evaluation of the results.