A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
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Published:2022-06-16
Issue:11
Volume:15
Page:4597-4623
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Golub Malgorzata, Thiery WimORCID, Marcé RafaelORCID, Pierson DonORCID, Vanderkelen InneORCID, Mercado-Bettin DanielORCID, Woolway R. Iestyn, Grant Luke, Jennings Eleanor, Kraemer Benjamin M., Schewe JacobORCID, Zhao Fang, Frieler Katja, Mengel MatthiasORCID, Bogomolov Vasiliy Y., Bouffard DamienORCID, Côté Marianne, Couture Raoul-MarieORCID, Debolskiy Andrey V.ORCID, Droppers BramORCID, Gal Gideon, Guo Mingyang, Janssen Annette B. G., Kirillin GeorgiyORCID, Ladwig RobertORCID, Magee Madeline, Moore TadhgORCID, Perroud Marjorie, Piccolroaz Sebastiano, Raaman Vinnaa LoveORCID, Schmid MartinORCID, Shatwell TomORCID, Stepanenko Victor M.ORCID, Tan Zeli, Woodward Bronwyn, Yao Huaxia, Adrian Rita, Allan Mathew, Anneville Orlane, Arvola Lauri, Atkins Karen, Boegman Leon, Carey CayelanORCID, Christianson Kyle, de Eyto ElviraORCID, DeGasperi Curtis, Grechushnikova MariaORCID, Hejzlar Josef, Joehnk KlausORCID, Jones Ian D., Laas Alo, Mackay Eleanor B., Mammarella IvanORCID, Markensten Hampus, McBride Chris, Özkundakci Deniz, Potes MiguelORCID, Rinke Karsten, Robertson Dale, Rusak James A.ORCID, Salgado RuiORCID, van der Linden Leon, Verburg Piet, Wain Danielle, Ward Nicole K., Wollrab SabineORCID, Zdorovennova GalinaORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across
the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future
changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake
biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of
the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model
forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a
relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the
effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered
studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly
focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded
identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and
regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality
considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a
simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral
Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change
impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change
scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake
simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and
different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas
concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a
0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake
models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62
well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under
historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes
defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this
approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more
processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to
project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of
lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of
the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
Funder
U.S. Geological Survey Eesti Teadusagentuur Belgian Federal Science Policy Office Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung National Science Foundation Ministère de l’Environnement, de la Protection de la nature et des Parcs Natural Environment Research Council Ministry of Energy, Israel Mälardalens högskola Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek U.S. Department of Energy Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vetenskapsrådet European Regional Development Fund
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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