Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
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Published:2020-06-29
Issue:6
Volume:24
Page:3311-3330
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ISSN:1607-7938
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Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Ayala Ana I.ORCID, Moras Simone, Pierson Donald C.ORCID
Abstract
Abstract. This paper, as a part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model
Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), assesses the impacts of different levels
of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken (Sweden). The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM)
one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate water temperature
when using ISIMIP2b bias-corrected climate model projections as input. These
projections have a daily time step, while lake model simulations are often
forced at hourly or shorter time steps. Therefore, it was necessary to first
test the ability of GOTM to simulate Lake Erken water temperature using
daily vs hourly meteorological forcing data. In order to do this, three data
sets were used to force the model as follows: (1) hourly measured data, (2) daily average
data derived from the first data set, and (3) synthetic hourly data created
from the daily data set using generalised regression artificial neural
network methods. This last data set is developed using a method that could
also be applied to the daily time step ISIMIP scenarios to obtain hourly
model input if needed. The lake model was shown to accurately simulate Lake
Erken water temperature when forced with either daily or synthetic hourly
data. Long-term simulations forced with daily or synthetic hourly
meteorological data suggest that by the late 21st century the lake will
undergo clear changes in thermal structure. For the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario, namely RCP2.6, surface water
temperature was projected to increase by 1.79 and 1.36 ∘C when the lake model was forced at daily and hourly resolutions
respectively, and for RCP6.0 these increases were projected to be 3.08 and 2.31 ∘C. Changes in lake stability were
projected to increase, and the stratification duration was projected to be
longer by 13 and 11 d under RCP2.6 scenario and 22 and 18 d
under RCP6.0 scenario for daily and hourly resolutions. Model changes in
thermal indices were very similar when using either the daily or synthetic
hourly forcing, suggesting that the original ISIMIP climate model
projections at a daily time step can be sufficient for the purpose of
simulating lake water temperature.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
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