Heuristic estimation of low-level cloud fraction over the globe based on a decoupling parameterization

Abstract

Abstract. Based on the decoupling parameterization of the cloud-topped planetary boundary layer, a simple equation is derived to compute the inversion height. In combination with the lifting condensation level and the amount of water vapor in near-surface air, we propose a low-level cloud suppression parameter (LCS) and estimated low-level cloud fraction (ELF), as new proxies for the analysis of the spatiotemporal variation of the global low-level cloud amount (LCA). Individual surface and upper-air observations are used to compute LCS and ELF as well as lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), estimated inversion strength (EIS), and estimated cloud-top entrainment index (ECTEI), three proxies for LCA that have been widely used in previous studies. The spatiotemporal correlations between these proxies and surface-observed LCA were analyzed. Over the subtropical marine stratocumulus deck, both LTS and EIS diagnose seasonal–interannual variations of LCA well. However, their use as a global proxy for LCA is limited due to their weaker and inconsistent relationship with LCA over land. EIS is anti-correlated with the decoupling strength more strongly than it is correlated with the inversion strength. Compared with LTS and EIS, ELF and LCS better diagnose temporal variations of LCA, not only over the marine stratocumulus deck but also in other regions. However, all proxies have a weakness in diagnosing interannual variations of LCA in several subtropical stratocumulus decks. In the analysis using all data, ELF achieves the best performance in diagnosing spatiotemporal variation of LCA, explaining about 60 % of the spatial–seasonal–interannual variance of the seasonal LCA over the globe, which is a much larger percentage than those explained by LTS (2 %) and EIS (4 %). Our study implies that accurate prediction of inversion base height and lifting condensation level is a key factor necessary for successful simulation of global low-level clouds in general circulation models (GCMs). Strong spatiotemporal correlation between ELF (or LCS) and LCA identified in our study can be used to evaluate the performance of GCMs, identify the source of inaccurate simulation of LCA, and better understand climate sensitivity.