A short term load forecasting of integrated energy system based on CNN-LSTM

Abstract

The accurate forecast of integrated energy loads, which has important practical significance, is the premise of the design, operation, scheduling and management of integrated energy systems. In order to make full use of the coupling characteristics of electricity, cooling and heating loads which is difficult to deal with by traditional methods, this paper proposes a new forecast model of integrated energy system loads based on the combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short term memory (LSTM). Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficients among the electricity, cooling and heating load series of the integrated energy system are calculated, and the results show that there is a strong coupling relationship between the loads of an integrated energy system. Then, the CNN-LSTM composite model is constructed, and CNN is used to extract the characteristic quantity which reflects the load coupling characteristics of the integrated energy system. Then, the characteristic quantity is converted into the time series input to LSTM, and the excellent time series processing ability of LSTM is used for load forecasting. The results show that the CNN-LSTM composite model proposed in this paper has higher prediction accuracy than the wavelet neural network model, CNN model and LSTM model.