Assessment of damage during the formation and passage of mudflows in the Tashkent region

Abstract

Mountainous and largely foothill areas of the Republic of Uzbekistan are mudflow hazardous. In the Tashkent region, there are two mudflow river basins (dangerous concerning the manifestation of mudflows): the Chirchik river basin and the Akhangaran river basin. Based on the results of long-term observations of the Uzhydromet service, a digital map of the mudflow hazard in the Tashkent region for a century was compiled. The method for determining the damage from the action of mudflows on a specific object consists of determining the equivalent mudflow pressure according to its initial parameters. According to the methodology for assessing damage in the event of a natural emergency, the main parameters of the damaging factors were determined during the passage of a mudflow in the event of intense rainfall. The calculations were performed for two scenarios: 1) with dangerous rainfall with an intensity of 30 mm per day; 2) in case of especially dangerous rainfall with an intensity of 60 mm per day. Based on the calculations performed, the amount of damage to the national economy of the Tashkent region was determined during the passage of a mudflow caused by intense rainfall.