Development of a simulation model for the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection in Kaluga region

Abstract

The development of the situation around Covid-19 is an urgent problem for the whole world, and it is still not known exactly how the pandemic will develop. However, based on the data of the virus spread to date, it is possible to model the approximate outcome of the activities of humanity in the fight against Covid-19. To develop this model, we used a simulation tool-AnyLogic (Personal Learning Edition) with support for the Java programming language. This software has a large analytical functionality. When creating the Covid-19 infection model, the free version of the program was used. This model is only relevant if the pandemic continues at the same pace. There are many factors that can deviate from the presented model in any direction: early release from restrictive measures, virus mutations, forced vaccination of the population, and other measures that directly affect the main indicators of infection development. In the process of modelling the spread of Covid-19 coronavirus infection in the Kaluga region, results were obtained that reflect the rate of development of the pandemic. Thus, it is possible to identify the weaknesses of the fight against viruses and further minimize the rate of development of the disease.