Forecasting the size of the dairy market in anylogic environment

Abstract

The current situation at the market for food and agricultural raw materials is difficult, and critical for some industries. The processes of import substitution, that is, shaking-out imported products from the markets and the growth of domestic production, have significant differences for segments of the food market. There was a significant differentiation of food markets in the following main indicators: the growth rate of domestic production, the share of imports in resources, the share of exports in production, and the amount of state support. However, 2020 showed that the course taken by the Government and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation for import substitution was not fully implemented, and a large share of products is imported from third countries that were not included in the sanctions list. Economic and mathematical modeling can partially solve this problem. Analysis of scientific literature on modeling the equilibrium at agri-food markets showed the absence of any actual domestic development. The most famous foreign conceptual models dated back to 1990-2000. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank have developed such general and private equilibrium models as RUNS (Rural-Urban North South), MRT (Regional Trade MRT, Harrison), AGLINK COSIMO, etc. These recursive-dynamic models make it possible to determine the equilibrium parameters for the main types of products for almost all countries of the world, including the Russian Federation and all agricultural markets. However, the introduction of sanctions has stopped work in this direction.