Hybrid Particle Swarm and Conjugate Gradient Optimization in Neural Network for Prediction of Suspended Particulate Matter

Abstract

The scope of this research is the use of artificial neural network models and meta-heuristic optimization of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for the prediction of ambient air pollution parameter data at air quality monitoring stations in the city of Semarang, Central Java. The observed parameter is an indicator of ambient air quality, Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM). Based on air quality parameter data in previous times which is a time series data, modeling is done using Neural Networks (NN). Estimation of weights from NN is done using a hybrid method between meta-heuristic and gradient optimization. The meta-heuristic optimization method used is Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) while the gradient based method is the Conjugate Gradient. Optimization with PSO is done first, then proceed with optimization using the Conjugate Gradient. Four scenarios of iteration selection at the PSO stage are 10, 25, 50 and 100. At the Conjugate Gradient, stage iteration is carried out up to 1000 epohs. The predicted results were compared with the PSOs and Conjugate Gradient respectively. The results show that the hybrid method provides better predictions. The number of iterations needed at the PSO stage is not too much so it is efficient in combining the two methods.