Construction of short-term forecast of the number of railcars at the stations and non-public routes. Results and analysis

Abstract

Objective: collect raw data for building predictive models. Analyze the initial data, identify data outliers and outliers, divide the data into time intervals, calculate correlation coefficients, partial autocorrelation, cross-correlation, analyze the trend and seasonality of the obtained time series. Using autoregressive models, machine learning models, neuro-fuzzy models to build forecasts of time series and determine the quality of the obtained forecasts. Methods: point density, autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation, cross-correlation, Foster-Stewart test, Dickey-Fuller test, ARMA, MLP, Encoder-Decoder LTSM, TSK, Fuzzy-Partitions, SCRG, Transformers. Results: we obtained estimates of the prediction accuracy of the selected models, compared the results of the predictive models trained on different samples of initial data. Conclusions are made about the efficiency and methods of building predictive models. Practical significance: the significance of building accurate predictive models for the key quantitative indicators of stations and nonpublic routes operation is shown. The factors influencing the accuracy of the obtained forecasts are analyzed.