Validation of prognostic models in intensive care unit–treated pediatric traumatic brain injury patients

Abstract

OBJECTIVEThere are few specific prognostic models specifically developed for the pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) population. In the present study, the authors tested the predictive performance of existing prognostic tools, originally developed for the adult TBI population, in pediatric TBI patients requiring stays in the ICU.METHODSThe authors used the Finnish Intensive Care Consortium database to identify pediatric patients (< 18 years of age) treated in 4 academic ICUs in Finland between 2003 and 2013. They tested the predictive performance of 4 classification systems—the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) TBI model, the Helsinki CT score, the Rotterdam CT score, and the Marshall CT classification—by assessing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the explanatory variation (pseudo-R2 statistic). The primary outcome was 6-month functional outcome (favorable outcome defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 4–5).RESULTSOverall, 341 patients (median age 14 years) were included; of these, 291 patients had primary head CT scans available. The IMPACT core-based model showed an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) and a pseudo-R2 value of 0.40. Of the CT scoring systems, the Helsinki CT score displayed the highest performance (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.78–0.90; pseudo-R2 0.39) followed by the Rotterdam CT score (AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.73–0.86; pseudo-R2 0.34).CONCLUSIONSPrognostic tools originally developed for the adult TBI population seemed to perform well in pediatric TBI. Of the tested CT scoring systems, the Helsinki CT score yielded the highest predictive value.