Criticality assessment and cascading effects: impacts of COVID-19 disruptions in public transport on marginalized groups in Dortmund, Germany, São Paulo, Brazil, and Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the interconnectedness of critical infrastructure systems and their profound impact on marginalized communities. This study investigates the cascading effects of reduced mobility and infrastructure disruptions caused by COVID-19 response strategies on marginalized households across three diverse urban settings: Dortmund, São Paulo, and Cape Town. Employing a criticality assessment, we examine disruptions in healthcare, food and nutrition, social work, education, and childcare sectors, highlighting interdependencies and their implications for marginalized communities. Our findings reveal that disruptions in one sector, such as public transportation, can trigger adverse consequences across interconnected systems, amplifying vulnerabilities and exacerbating social inequalities. Furthermore, limited digital accessibility compounds these challenges, particularly for marginalized groups who may lack access to necessary technologies or digital literacy skills. Addressing these disparities in digital access is crucial for ensuring equitable access to essential services and support networks, especially in times of crisis. The study underscores the importance of mobility and accessibility in addressing systemic vulnerabilities and advocates for comprehensive resilience strategies that prioritize the needs of marginalized communities. Recommendations for policymakers, urban planners, and community stakeholders are provided to enhance infrastructure resilience and mitigate the indirect effects of disruptions on marginalized groups. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of cascading effects within critical infrastructure networks and informs future research and policy initiatives aimed at building resilient communities in an interconnected world.