Machine Learning Models for Predicting Influential Factors of Early Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Registry-Based Study

Abstract

Background Timely and accurate outcome prediction plays a vital role in guiding clinical decisions on acute ischemic stroke. Early condition deterioration and severity after the acute stage are determinants for long-term outcomes. Therefore, predicting early outcomes is crucial in acute stroke management. However, interpreting the predictions and transforming them into clinically explainable concepts are as important as the predictions themselves. Objective This work focused on machine learning model analysis in predicting the early outcomes of ischemic stroke and used model explanation skills in interpreting the results. Methods Acute ischemic stroke patients registered on the Stroke Registry of the Chang Gung Healthcare System (SRICHS) in 2009 were enrolled for machine learning predictions of the two primary outcomes: modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at hospital discharge and in-hospital deterioration. We compared 4 machine learning models, namely support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), and deep neural network (DNN), with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Further, 3 resampling methods, random under sampling (RUS), random over sampling, and the synthetic minority over-sampling technique, dealt with the imbalanced data. The models were explained based on the ranking of feature importance and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results RF performed well in both outcomes (discharge mRS: mean AUC 0.829, SD 0.018; in-hospital deterioration: mean AUC 0.710, SD 0.023 on original data and 0.728, SD 0.036 on resampled data with RUS for imbalanced data). In addition, DNN outperformed other models in predicting in-hospital deterioration on data without resampling (mean AUC 0.732, SD 0.064). In general, resampling contributed to the limited improvement of model performance in predicting in-hospital deterioration using imbalanced data. The features obtained from the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), white blood cell differential counts, and age were the key features for predicting discharge mRS. In contrast, the NIHSS total score, initial blood pressure, having diabetes mellitus, and features from hemograms were the most important features in predicting in-hospital deterioration. The SHAP summary described the impacts of the feature values on each outcome prediction. Conclusions Machine learning models are feasible in predicting early stroke outcomes. An enriched feature bank could improve model performance. Initial neurological levels and age determined the activity independence at hospital discharge. In addition, physiological and laboratory surveillance aided in predicting in-hospital deterioration. The use of the SHAP explanatory method successfully transformed machine learning predictions into clinically meaningful results.