Social Capital of the Territorial Communities of Ukraine in the Conditions of War: Current Transformations and Forecasted Changes

Abstract

The relevance of the study of current and forecasted transformations of the social capital of territorial communities is due to the need to strengthen social capital at the local level as a means of consolidating the population in the conditions of the destabilizing pressure of war and the risks of reducing the regulatory capabilities of state administration. The purpose of the study is to reveal the transformational shifts in the social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine in the war and post-war periods. The scientific novelty of the work consists in revealing the peculiarities of the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the humanitarian crisis caused by it on the trends of the development of social capital of the territorial communities of Ukraine. Forecasting of social capital transformations is based on the use of systemic approach, methods of abstraction and generalization, modeling, and scenario forecasting of time series. The use of the scenario approach is due to the low predictability and instability of military actions and includes realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic forecast versions. The prediction according to the realistic version is based on the assumption of building up the potential of social capital by the communities of the country and, above all, the territories freed from temporary occupation. It is substantiated that social capital will grow mainly within the community and to a lesser extent outside it, which is due to the residents’ need to identify themselves with the community and its values in conditions of threat to life. The surge of social capital and high motivation of the population will be manifested in the active participation of residents in the public life of territorial communities and the post-war reconstruction of the economy. The trends of the social capital transformation are substantiated for three groups of communities: temporarily occupied territories, territorial communities of the «near rear», and communities of the «deep rear». The optimistic version is based on the assumption that in the forecast period, the transformation of social capital will take place in the conditions of the successful end of hostilities and the liberation of the territory of Ukraine from the occupying forces. It is expected that in the conditions of the post-war reconstruction of communities, the multiplier effect of increasing financial capacity will have a positive impact on the social capital of the community and will manifest itself in the strengthening of the residents’ sense of social protection and the reduction of the economic anxiety level. According to the pessimistic version, the transformation of the social capital of territorial communities will take place in the conditions of a repeated massive offensive of Russian troops and the capture of new territories, which may cause a decrease in the level of trust between residents in the struggle for limited resources, discord, and a decrease in civic participation.