Scale and Consequences of Forced Migration of the Population of Ukraine as a Result of Armed Aggression of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of the scale and consequences of forced external and internal migration due to the active phase of the Russia-Ukraine war. The urgency of the work is due to the need for scientific understanding of migration trends formed after February 24, 2022 and the lack of analytical research on migration in this period. The purpose of the article is to assess the scale of forced migration of the population of Ukraine both within the country and abroad. The novelty of the study is to identify the consequences of large-scale migratory movements, which began on February 24, 2022, and develop recommendations for their regulation. The research methodology is based on the use of rather eclectic information from open sources, expert opinions and assessments, etc., in conditions when the production of official statistics is stopped, conducting sample surveys, at least “face to face”, is extremely difficult. The trends of forced migration within Ukraine and abroad have been assessed. It was established that the active departure of the population from Ukraine was observed in the first weeks of the open war phase, after that the flow of refugees slowed down. According to Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine, based on data from the State Border Guard Service, the number of war refugees from Ukraine is 3.1-3.2 million people, but there is a risk of significant increase. Possible amounts of irreversible migration losses, depending on the impact of military and economic factors, will range from 600-700 thousand people to 5.0-5.5 million. The number of those who were forced to change their place of residence within Ukraine is estimated at 5.0-5.5 million. The factors of return of forced migrants to Ukraine are identified, the consequences of large-scale forced migrations are assessed, and recommendations for their regulation are proposed. It is concluded that a more accurate estimate of the number of both IDPs and forced external migrants requires the development of comprehensive methodology that will take into account data from various sources and adequate information provision (in particular, the introduction of sample surveys in Ukraine and abroad on a regular basis). Validation of performed assessments data is possible after the census.