Machine learning analysis to identify the association between risk factors and onset of nosocomial diarrhea: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background Although several risk factors for nosocomial diarrhea have been identified, the detail of association between these factors and onset of nosocomial diarrhea, such as degree of importance or temporal pattern of influence, remains unclear. We aimed to determine the association between risk factors and onset of nosocomial diarrhea using machine learning algorithms. Methods We retrospectively collected data of patients with acute cerebral infarction. Seven variables, including age, sex, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, and number of days of antibiotics, tube feeding, proton pump inhibitors, and histamine 2-receptor antagonist use, were used in the analysis. We split the data into a training dataset and independant test dataset. Based on the training dataset, we developed a random forest, support vector machine (SVM), and radial basis function (RBF) network model. By calculating an area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve using 5-fold cross-validation, we performed feature selection and hyperparameter optimization in each model. According to their final performances, we selected the optimal model and also validated it in the independent test dataset. Based on the selected model, we visualized the variable importance and the association between each variable and the outcome using partial dependence plots. Results Two-hundred and eighteen patients were included. In the cross-validation within the training dataset, the random forest model achieved an AUC of 0.944, which was higher than in the SVM and RBF network models. The random forest model also achieved an AUC of 0.832 in the independent test dataset. Tube feeding use days, mRS score, antibiotic use days, age and sex were strongly associated with the onset of nosocomial diarrhea, in this order. Tube feeding use had an inverse U-shaped association with the outcome. The mRS score and age had a convex downward and increasing association, while antibiotic use had a convex upward association with the outcome. Conclusion We revealed the degree of importance and temporal pattern of the influence of several risk factors for nosocomial diarrhea, which could help clinicians manage nosocomial diarrhea.