Validation of a Risk Equation Predicting Hemodialysis Arteriovenous Fistula Primary Failure in Elderly

Author:

Qian Joyce Z.,McAdams-DeMarco Mara A.,Ng Derek,Lau Bryan

Abstract

Background: Choice of vascular access for older hemodialysis patients presents a special challenge since the rate of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) primary failure is high. The Lok’s risk equation predicting AVF primary failure has achieved good prediction accuracy and holds great potential for clinical use, but it has not been validated in the United States older hemodialysis patients. Methods: We assembled a validation data set of 14,892 patients aged 67 years and older who initiated hemodialysis with a central venous catheter between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012, and had a subsequent, incident AVF placement from the United States Renal Data System. We examined the external validity of Lok’s model by applying it to this validation data set. The discriminatory accuracy and calibration were evaluated by the concordance index (C-statistics) and calibration plot, respectively. Results: The observed frequency of AVF primary failure varied from 0.45 to 0.53 in hemodialysis patients in the validation data set. The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure calculated by using the Lok’s risk equation ranged from 0.08 to 0.61, and 77.8, 40.5, and 51.7% of patients were categorized as having high, intermediate, and low risk of AVF primary failure, respectively. The C-statistics of the Lok’s risk equation in the validation data set was 0.53 (95% CI 0.52–0.54). The predicted probabilities of AVF primary failure corresponded poorly with the observed proportions in the calibration plot. Conclusions: When externally applied to a cohort of U.S. older hemodialysis patients, the Lok’s risk equation exhibited poor discrimination and calibration accuracy. It is invalid to use it to predict AVF primary failure. A more complex model with strong predictors is expected to better serve clinical determination for AVF placement in this population.

Publisher

S. Karger AG

Subject

Nephrology

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3