Glacier Recession and Lake Shrinkage Indicating a Climatic Warming and Drying Trend in Central Asia

Abstract

Mass balance observations on Urumqi River No. 1 Glacier and Tuyuksu Glacier in Tianshan show a large deficit during the 1980s as compared to the decades before. The Qinghai Lake in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the Issyk-kul Lake in Soviet Tianshan have been continuously shrinking during the past few centuries. Since the maximum of the Little Ice Age which occurred mainly in the 18th century, glaciers have decreased in area by about 44% in the Urumqi valley. These data and other evidence from glaciers, lakes, etc. clearly indicate that the climatic warming and drying tendency grows stronger in this century and will possibly persist to the early decades of the next century. The growing greenhouse effect due to the increase of CO2 and other related gases will enhance this tendency in the near future. However, should the high temperature period of the early and middle Holocene reappear, the climate would become humid.