Identification of risk zones according to the rate of total mortality and lifestyle factors at the regional level

Abstract

Introduction. Population mortality depends on a complex of man-made, social, and natural behavioral factors. Clustering of territories within large constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the value of population losses makes it possible to determine the most significant of the controllable factors.The aim of the work was to identify the risk zones according to the level of total mortality rates of the population of municipalities of the Irkutsk region and the relationship of the index with lifestyle factors.Materials and methods. The data on 42 objects, including municipalities and cities of the Irkutsk region, in the dynamics from 2011 to 2021 were analyzed using linear regression analysis. Cluster analysis was used to identify the risk territories: the hierarchical Wards method and k-means method. The relationships between the studied attributes were evaluated using Spearman rank correlation analysis.Results. The mortality rate decreased in 2011−2019 and increased in 2020−2021, averaging 13.34 CI(13.22−14.81) ‰. Five clusters differing in mortality rate were identified: minimum in V − 11.7 CI(10.72−12.68)‰; maximum in IV − 18.5CI(17.91−19.09)‰. In these clusters the prevalence of drug addiction, tobacco smoking and alcoholism are statistically significantly different. Based on this classification, risk areas (with the highest proportion of the population above working age and a high prevalence of household intoxication) and “borderline areas” (clusters with an increased mortality rate) have been identified. Discussion In order to identify risk areas and priority factors, there remains a need to improve the information base, increasing the use of different statistical methods to identify the key factors influencing overall mortality at the regional level.Conclusion. The mortality rate is associated not only with an ageing population, but also with the prevalence of habitual domestic intoxications and low physical activity of the adult population.