A Method of Radar Echo Extrapolation Based on TREC and Barnes Filter

Abstract

A method named BTREC, which is in fact an extension of tracking a radar echo by cross-correlation (TREC) method, is proposed based on the Barnes filter in this paper. BTREC is an efficient objective analysis method for smoothing the motion vectors of radar echo patterns. A comparative analysis of the BTREC vectors and the COTREC (another extension of TREC, which is restricted by the 2D continuity equation) vectors is conducted. The results show that the BTREC method corrects the noise and inconsistencies in TREC vectors (often induced by shielding, ground clutter, and rapid morphological changes of the radar patterns) more thoroughly than COTREC. Then the BTREC, COTREC, and TREC methods are applied to extrapolate the real radar echo pattern over Jiangxi Province in China for two cases (1900–2100 UTC 4 June and 0900–1100 UTC 30 June 2018). Results show that the BTREC method performs the best out of the three methods to forecast the radar echo patterns in the following 1 and 2 h, and has the least distortion. To further confirm that, 892 radar composite reflectivity mosaic images with precipitation in summer (June–August) over Jiangxi are collected to test the three methods. The results show that in the 1- and 2-h extrapolations, the mean differences of the threat score (TS), correlation (CORR), and probability of detection (POD) between BTREC and TREC are obviously more than 0, while that of the false alarm ratio (FAR) is remarkably less than 0 (the threshold to identify whether a grid is correctly predicted is set to 10 dB Z). Although the mean difference of TS, CORR, POD, and FAR between COTREC and TREC have similar variation, their magnitudes are obviously decreased (especially for the 2-h extrapolation). This further indicates that the BTREC method obviously improves the forecast of the radar echo pattern within the next 2 h compared to the COTREC and TREC methods.