Impact of Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances on Forecasts of 2008 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Initialized with a Limited-Area Ensemble Kalman Filter

Abstract

Abstract The impact of assimilating radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on forecasts of several tropical cyclones (TCs) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and a limited-area ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Analysis/forecast cycling experiments with and without AMSU-A radiance assimilation were performed over the Atlantic Ocean for the period 11 August–13 September 2008, when five named storms formed. For convenience, the radiance forward operators and bias-correction coefficients, along with the majority of quality-control decisions, were computed by a separate, preexisting variational assimilation system. The bias-correction coefficients were obtained from 3-month offline statistics and fixed during the EnKF analysis cycles. The vertical location of each radiance observation, which is required for covariance localization in the EnKF, was taken to be the level at which the AMSU-A channels’ weighting functions peaked. Deterministic 72-h WRF forecasts initialized from the ensemble-mean analyses were evaluated with a focus on TC prediction. Assimilating AMSU-A radiances produced better depictions of the environmental fields when compared to reanalyses and dropwindsonde observations. Radiance assimilation also resulted in substantial improvement of TC track and intensity forecasts with track-error reduction up to 16% for forecasts beyond 36 h. Additionally, assimilating both radiances and satellite winds gave markedly more benefit for TC track forecasts than solely assimilating radiances.