An Analysis of Low- and High-Frequency Summer Climate Variability around the Caribbean Antilles

Abstract

This study contrasts the pattern of low-frequency (LF) and high-frequency (HF) climate variability in the eastern Caribbean. A low-pass Butterworth filter is used to study oscillations in rainfall and regional SST on time scales of greater and less than 8 yr in the period 1901–2002. The results show that the southern and northern Antilles are dominated by HF variability, whereas rainfall fluctuations in the eastern Antilles oscillate at quasi-decadal periods over the 102-yr record. In the southern Antilles, the HF rainfall signal derives from a late-summer response to the ENSO phase: warm and dry versus cool and wet. In the northern Antilles, the HF signal relates to a combination of an ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase: a warm ENSO and a negative NAO bring wetter conditions, while a cool ENSO and a positive NAO bring drier conditions. The early rainfall LF signal in SST is characterized by a dipole between the North Atlantic and South Atlantic and is associated with cross-equatorial winds that promote convection in the Caribbean. The study analyzes the upper-ocean structure—in particular, a low (high) salinity signal in the tropical North Atlantic (North Pacific) that relates to LF (HF) climate variability.