Probabilistic Concepts in a Changing Climate: A Snapshot Attractor Picture*

Abstract

Abstract The authors argue that the concept of snapshot attractors and of their natural probability distributions are the only available tools by means of which mathematically sound statements can be made about averages, variances, etc., for a given time instant in a changing climate. A basic advantage of the snapshot approach, which relies on the use of an ensemble, is that the natural distribution and thus any statistics based on it are independent of the particular ensemble used, provided it is initiated in the past earlier than a convergence time. To illustrate these concepts, a tutorial presentation is given within the framework of a low-order model in which the temperature contrast parameter over a hemisphere decreases linearly in time. Furthermore, the averages and variances obtained from the snapshot attractor approach are demonstrated to strongly differ from the traditional 30-yr temporal averages and variances taken along single realizations. The authors also claim that internal variability can be quantified by the natural distribution since it characterizes the chaotic motion represented by the snapshot attractor. This experience suggests that snapshot-attractor-based calculations might be appropriate to be evaluated in any large-scale climate model, and that the application of 30-yr temporal averages taken along single realizations should be complemented with this more appealing tool for the characterization of climate changes, which seems to be practically feasible with moderate ensemble sizes.