Validation and Interpretation of Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector as Targeted Observation Guidance

Abstract

The adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV) has been proposed and applied as a guidance for targeted observation in the field programs for improving tropical cyclone predictability, such as The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC). The ADSSV identifies sensitive areas at the observing time to the steering flow at the verifying time through adjoint calculation. In addition, the ability of the ADSSV to represent signals of influence from synoptic systems such as the midlatitude trough and the subtropical high prior to the recurvature of Typhoon Shanshan (2006) has also been demonstrated. In this study, the impact of initial perturbations associated with the high or low ADSSV sensitivity on model simulations is investigated by systematically perturbing initial vorticity fields in the case of Shanshan. Results show that experiments with the perturbed initial conditions located in the high ADSSV area (i.e., the midlatitude trough and the subtropical high) lead to more track deflection relative to the unperturbed control run than experiments with perturbations in the low sensitivity area. The evolutions of the deep-layer-mean steering flow and the direction of the ADSSV are compared to provide conceptual interpretation and validation on the physical meaning of the ADSSV. Concerning the results associated with the perturbed regions in high sensitivity regions, the variation of the steering flow within the verifying area due to the initial perturbations is generally consistent with that of the direction of the ADSSV. In addition, the bifurcation between the ADSSV and the steering change becomes larger with the increased integration time. However, the result for the perturbed region in the low-sensitivity region indicates that the steering change does not have good agreement with the ADSSV. The large initial perturbations to the low-sensitivity region may interact with the trough to the north due to the nonlinearity, which may not be accounted for in the ADSSV. Furthermore, the effect of perturbations specifically within the sensitive vertical layers is investigated to validate the vertical structure of the ADSSV. The structure of kinetic energy shows that the perturbation associated with the trough (subtropical high) specifically in the mid-to-upper (mid-to-lower) troposphere evolves similarly to that in the deep-layer troposphere, leading to comparable track changes. A sensitivity test in which perturbations are locally introduced in a higher-sensitivity area is conducted to examine the different impact as compared to that perturbed with the broader synoptic feature.