An Assessment of National Weather Service Warning Procedures for Ice Storms

Abstract

Abstract Ice storms cause substantial damage to the United States every winter season, and the costs have increased in recent years. Accurate prediction and timely dissemination of warnings are effective ways to reduce the effects, because institutions and individuals can take actions to reduce the impacts. The National Weather Service (NWS) is the U.S. government agency charged with issuing warnings of impending ice storms. A survey of NWS warning coordination meteorologists was conducted to assess their awareness of the ice storm hazard, procedures followed to warn for ice storms, and level of contact with members of the community. Several warnings issued in advance of a recent ice storm were also examined. The findings of this research are twofold. First, most meteorologists with the NWS perceive the ice storm hazard with a level of seriousness consistent with climatology. Most follow established procedure and actively engage in warning specific groups before a storm. The second finding was that individual offices maintain a high level of autonomy. While this offers valuable flexibility and the opportunity to try new approaches, there is significant variation in the length and tone of ice storm warnings themselves. Additionally, several offices do not contact outsiders or offer general educational products, which may underserve constituents in their forecast areas. To solve these problems, it is suggested that NWS management encourage and support proactive communication policies. The NWS should also analyze the audience of their warning products and consider guidelines regarding intended audience, tone, and length.