Convective-Scale Data Assimilation for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using the Local Particle Filter

Abstract

Abstract Particle filters (PFs) are Monte Carlo data assimilation techniques that operate with no parametric assumptions for prior and posterior errors. A data assimilation method introduced recently, called the local PF, approximates the PF solution within neighborhoods of observations, thus allowing for its use in high-dimensional systems. The current study explores the potential of the local PF for atmospheric data assimilation through cloud-permitting numerical experiments performed for an idealized squall line. Using only 100 ensemble members, experiments using the local PF to assimilate simulated radar measurements demonstrate that the method provides accurate analyses at a cost comparable to ensemble filters currently used in weather models. Comparisons between the local PF and an ensemble Kalman filter demonstrate benefits of the local PF for producing probabilistic analyses of non-Gaussian variables, such as hydrometeor mixing ratios. The local PF also provides more accurate forecasts than the ensemble Kalman filter, despite yielding higher posterior root-mean-square errors. A major advantage of the local PF comes from its ability to produce more physically consistent posterior members than the ensemble Kalman filter, which leads to fewer spurious model adjustments during forecasts. This manuscript presents the first successful application of the local PF in a weather prediction model and discusses implications for real applications where nonlinear measurement operators and nonlinear model processes limit the effectiveness of current Gaussian data assimilation techniques.