Influences of Large-Scale Flow Variations on the Track Evolution of Typhoons Morakot (2009) and Megi (2010): Simulations with a Global Variable-Resolution Model

Abstract

Abstract Influences of large-scale flow variations on the track evolution of two typhoons, moderate Morakot (2009) and superintense Megi (2010), are investigated using the global variable-resolution model MPAS with a higher-resolution region of 15 km for the simulated typhoons. For Morakot, the associated track and extreme rainfall over southern Taiwan captured by MPAS compared well with the regional WRF simulations. To isolate the influences of various large-scale flows, three modes are filtered out from global reanalysis: the synoptic-scale mode, quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) mode, and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) mode. In the absence of QBW or MJO, the simulated Morakot moves westward across Taiwan without the observed north turn after landfall. When the intensity of the MJO mode is increased by 50% in the experiment (MJO+50%), a much earlier northward turn is induced. The simulated Morakot under the observed MJO lies in between MJO+50% and MJO−50% results. The MJO variations also show similar impacts on the track evolution of Typhoon Megi. The wavenumber-1 decompositions of vorticity budget terms are shown to highlight important contributions to the vorticity tendency and typhoon translation with and without the MJO. The northward turn of both typhoons in the presence of the MJO is mainly in response to positive horizontal vorticity advection to the north of the typhoon center. However, vorticity tilting is relatively more important for Morakot due to its slantwise structure. Furthermore, positive vorticity stretching and vertical advection are significant in the vicinity of southern Taiwan due to the effects of the Central Mountain Range and tend to retard the departing Morakot.