Relation of the South China Sea Precipitation Variability to Tropical Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies during Spring-to-Summer Transition

Abstract

Abstract The present study investigates the relationship of South China Sea (SCS) precipitation to tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during April–June (AMJ), which is the transition season from spring to summer. It is revealed that SCS rainfall anomalies in AMJ are influenced by SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (EP), tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), and western North Pacific (WNP). Three types of SST-influenced cases are obtained based on different combinations of SST anomalies in the above three regions. When same-sign EP and TIO SST anomalies are accompanied by opposite WNP SST anomalies, both anomalous cross-equatorial flows from the southwestern TIO induced by negative SST anomalies there and an anomalous Walker circulation forced by negative EP SST anomalies contribute to enhanced convection over the SCS and the surrounding regions with additional contribution from positive WNP SST anomalies via a Rossby wave–type response. In the cases of combined effects of EP and WNP SST anomalies, above-normal SST in the WNP is a direct cause of above-normal SCS rainfall though the WNP SST anomalies are induced by EP SST forcing. In the cases of combined impacts of TIO and EP SST anomalies, the accompanying coastal Sumatra SST anomalies contribute to the SCS rainfall variability via an anomalous cross-equatorial vertical circulation. The negative SST anomalies near the Sumatra coast induce descent over the southeastern TIO and ascent over the SCS and WNP. Model experiments with an atmospheric model confirm the impacts of southern TIO and EP SST anomalies on AMJ rainfall variation over the SCS.