Affiliation:
1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China
Abstract
AbstractBased on a set of hindcast experiments from 2011 to 2020, the prediction skills of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science Climate System Model (CAMS‐CSM) climate forecast system (CFS) on the abrupt changes and characteristic processes associated with the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) establishment are evaluated. We studied predictions for three different lead times, that is, LT1‐30, LT31‐60 and LT61‐90. The CAMS‐CSM CFS captures the climatological SCSSM onset date at all lead times, while the prediction skill of the SCSSM onset index decreases with the increasing lead times. The features of abrupt changes and characteristic processes related to the SCSSM establishment can be generally reproduced in the predictions, but different biases exist at three lead times. Besides, the CAMS‐CSM CFS provides higher skill on the transition of the zonal wind shear (ZWS) than that of meridional temperature difference (MTG). The transition date of MTG can only be accurately predicted at LT1‐30, indicating the limited ability of predicting temperature. Further results confirm that the CFS cannot well capture the eastward withdrawal of the western North Pacific subtropical high on late onset years, thereby leading a poorer prediction skill than early onset years. In addition, skillful prediction on the eastward extension of westerlies from the equatorial Indian Ocean to SCS also contributes to increase predictability of SCSSM onset.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
National Key Research and Development Program of China
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