Affiliation:
1. Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, China
2. Meteorological Institute, and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Abstract
In this study, temporal trends and spatial patterns of extreme temperature change are investigated at 352 meteorological stations in China over the period 1956–2013. The temperature series are first examined for evidence of long-range dependence at daily and monthly time scales. At most stations there is evidence of significant long-range dependence. Noncrossing quantile regression has been used for trend analysis of temperature series. For low quantiles of daily mean temperature and monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) in January, there is an increasing trend at most stations. A decrease is also observed in a zone ranging from northeastern China to central China for higher quantiles of daily mean temperature and monthly maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx) in July. Changes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation partly explain the trends of temperature extremes. To reveal the spatial pattern of temperature changes, a density-based spatial clustering algorithm is used to cluster the quantile trends of daily temperature series for 19 quantile levels (0.05, 0.1, …, 0.95). Spatial cluster analysis identifies a few large clusters showing different warming patterns in different parts of China. Finally, quantile regression reveals the connections between temperature extremes and two large-scale climate patterns: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The influence of ENSO on cold extremes is significant at most stations, but its influence on warm extremes is only weakly significant. The AO not only affects the cold extremes in northern and eastern China, but also affects warm extremes in northeastern and southern China.
Funder
Chinese Academy of Sciences
National Natural Science Foundation of China
German Research Foundation
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Cited by
40 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献