Arctic Sea Ice Patterns Driven by the Asian Summer Monsoon

Abstract

Abstract The fluctuation of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) has been associated with changes in ocean circulation, ecology, and Northern Hemisphere climate. Prediction of sea ice melting patterns is of great societal interest, but such prediction remains difficult because the factors controlling year-to-year sea ice variability remain unresolved. Distinct monsoon–Arctic teleconnections modulate summer Arctic SIC largely by changing wind-forced sea ice transport. East Asian monsoon rainfall produces a northward-propagating meridional Rossby wave train extending into the Siberian Arctic. The Indian summer monsoon excites an eastward-propagating circumglobal teleconnection along the subtropical jet, reaching the North Atlantic before bifurcating into the Arctic. The remote Asian monsoon variations induce a dominant dipole sea ice melt pattern in which the North Atlantic–European Arctic contrasts with the Siberian–North American Arctic. The monsoon-related sea ice variations are complementary and comparable in magnitude to locally forced Arctic Oscillation variability. The monsoon–Arctic link will improve seasonal prediction of summer Arctic sea ice and possibly explain long-term sea ice trends associated with the projected increase in Asian monsoon rainfall over the next century.