The role of atmospheric rivers and associated circulation patterns in the Arctic warming in boreal winter

Abstract

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) serve a narrow, filamentary channels responsible for intense moisture and heat transport, which are vital for the Arctic sea ice loss and surface air warming, particularly in winter. In this study, ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2020 are used to investigate the evolution of ARs in the Arctic and the corresponding atmospheric circulation patterns in winter. Our findings indicate that atmospheric circulation is a key factor that facilitates the transport and dispersion of ARs. Cyclonic circulation anomalies provide the dynamical support for ARs in the early development stages, while anticyclonic anomalies are essential for maintaining the thermal and moisture conditions of ARs, particularly after their intrusions into the Arctic region. The cooperation between cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies plays a critical role in the infiltration and dispersion of ARs, governed by distinct circulation modes for regional intrusions. A positive Arctic Oscillation‐like pattern manifests as a cyclonic system over the Arctic, increasing the likelihood of AR intrusion into Baffin Bay. Conversely, a negative pattern induces a more intense anticyclonic system over the Arctic, thereby raising the frequency of ARs in the Bering Strait. The Pacific‐North American pattern not only directly affects ARs entering the Arctic via the Pacific but also has downstream impacts on ARs intruding the Arctic through Baffin Bay.