On the Deterministic Observation Impact Guidance: A Geometrical Perspective

Abstract

Abstract An optimal use of the atmospheric data in numerical weather prediction requires an objective assessment of the value added by observations to improve the analyses and forecasts of a specific data assimilation system (DAS). This research brings forward the issue of uncertainties in the assessment of observation values based on deterministic observation impact (OBSI) estimations using observing system experiments (OSEs) and the adjoint-DAS framework. The state-to-observation space uncertainty propagation as a result of the errors in the verification state is investigated. For a quadratic forecast error measure, a geometrical perspective is used to provide insight and to convey some of the key aspects of this research. The study is specialized to a DAS implementing a linear analysis scheme and numerical experiments are presented using the Lorenz 40-variable model.