The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting Our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting Our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities

Published:2024-03 Issue:3 Volume:105 Page:E651-E659
ISSN:0003-0007
Container-title:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Author:

Weisheimer Antje¹,Baker Laura H.²,Bröcker Jochen³,Garfinkel Chaim I.⁴,Hardiman Steven C.⁵,Hodson Dan L. R.²,Palmer Tim N.⁶,Robson Jon I.²,Scaife Adam A.⁵,Screen James A.⁷,Shepherd Theodore G.⁸,Smith Doug M.⁵,Sutton Rowan T.²

Affiliation:

1. Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom;

2. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;

3. Department of Meteorology, and Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom;

4. Earth Science Institute, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel;

5. Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom;

6. Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;

7. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom;

8. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Link

https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/journals/bams/105/3/BAMS-D-24-0019.1.xml

Reference43 articles.

1. An intercomparison of skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multimodel seasonal forecasts;Baker, L. H.,2018

2. Rapid development of systematic ENSO‐related seasonal forecast errors;Beverley, J. D.,2023

3. A statistical perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox;Bröcker, J.,2023

4. Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet during austral spring and early summer;Byrne, N. J.,2019

5. When and where do ECMWF seasonal forecast systems exhibit anomalously low signal-to-noise ratio?;Charlton-Perez, A. J.,2019

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